Table of Contents
The Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) 2023-2025 is heating up with the iconic Boxing Day Test at Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG). With the series locked at 1-1, India faces a must-win scenario. Australia’s dominant first-innings performance, including Steve Smith’s masterful 140, has put India on the back foot. Trailing by 310 runs at stumps on Day 2 with five wickets down, India risks slipping further in the World Test Championship (WTC) standings if they lose this crucial Test.
WTC Points Table Scenario
Here’s how the WTC points table could shape up if India suffers a Boxing Day defeat:
| Rank | Team | Played | Won | Draw | Lost | Penalties | Points | % Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 76 | 63.33 |
| 2 | Australia | 16 | 11 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 118 | 61.46 |
| 3 | India | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 114 | 52.78 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 81 | 48.21 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 60 | 45.45 |
With a defeat, India’s percentage points would drop to 52.78, while Australia would climb to 61.46. This would make India’s path to the WTC final significantly harder.
India’s Path to Qualification
To qualify for the WTC final, India must secure a series win. A 4-1 or 3-1 margin is necessary to ensure direct qualification. A Boxing Day loss means the Sydney Test becomes a do-or-die scenario. Even a 2-2 draw complicates matters, forcing India to rely on other results, such as Sri Lanka defeating Australia in their upcoming series.
External factors, like over-rate penalties for Australia or Sri Lanka outperforming expectations, could play a crucial role in keeping India’s hopes alive.
What’s at Stake?
With South Africa leading the standings and Australia in second place, India’s performance in this series is pivotal. A loss here could force them into a precarious position, relying heavily on other teams’ results to stay in contention.
India needs to regroup quickly to fight back in the second innings. Can Rohit Sharma and his team turn things around, or will the Boxing Day Test prove to be a decisive blow to their WTC ambitions?
